Mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years: A new data-powered forecast through 2031

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, with a typical spread of about 2 percentage points. Forecasts suggest mortgage rates will remain around 6% in 2027, with potential gradual declines over five years. A soft economic landing could lower rates to about 5%, while persistent inflation might push rates above 7%. Significant economic events could cause unpredictable rate shifts.